Tag: bus
Business Case for Friday Exception Schedules in Urban Transit
For a major regional transit authority, we developed a strategic business case for providing separate baseline schedules on Fridays distinct from other weekdays due to significantly different time-of-day and geographical ridership patterns. At that time, regular commuters were trending towards more flexible work scheduling, telecommuting arrangements, and 4½-day weeks especially in the summer, and we observed from Automated Fare Collection (AFC) data that the gaps between midweek and Friday ridership have widened. These Friday exception schedules are not unusual: transit operators ran full Saturday lunchtime rush-hours in the interwar years, while private bus companies, airlines, and freight railroads operate many exceptions today. They can help the operator better match service supply to passenger demand. We found through longitudinal analysis of data that more regular commuters skipped Friday’s trip than other weekdays’. Detailed analysis for 14 representative routes revealed 4.7% lower ridership on Fridays, potentially allowing 7.4% reductions in vehicle-hours operated. Available savings were route-specific, with 25% service reductions possible on some, whereas 25% service fortification was required on leisure-heavy routes having increased Friday ridership. We estimated that implementing separate Friday base schedules systemwide could provide an annual surplus of $10~$17 million for reinvestment elsewhere in the network. From a crewing perspective, we found that the resulting reduced Friday crew requirements could lead to an 1.8% increase in desirable weekend-inclusive regular days-off rosters, and 2.4% reduction in non-preferred midweek days-off rosters. Our recommendation was for the continued implementation of a computerized run-cutting system, and creation of routine analytical processes for multi-variate ridership analysis allowing differences across days, routes, time periods, and other variables to be determined, which together will form the prerequisites for implementing a separate Friday base schedule.
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Bus Fare Collection System Audits
For a large regional bus company, we performed a series of fare payment system related audits to support a number of management initiatives and special projects. In response to a perception that fare abuse is an issue on certain bus routes, we conducted systemwide measurements to estimate the rate of onboard fare evasion with a group of traffic surveyors. To ensure the systemwide rates are correct for revenue loss estimation purposes, we used a stratified sample to ensure proper geographic and temporal coverage. In conjunction with a bus rapid transit line launch featuring offboard fare payment system, we performed before and after studies of unpaid fares, to understand how the changes in fare collection mechanism has affected the rates. To support financial estimates, we designed a study to measure the dollar amounts paid by passengers who paid a partial fare using nearly exhausted farecards or insufficient cash fares. To address an allegation that limited-mobility users were not paying the correct fares, we designed a study specifically to observe wheelchair boardings, which was difficult because it is a relatively rare event widely distributed in time and space. We also designed a study using AFC system data to determine the frequency at which buses were sent from depot with malfunctioning fareboxes, resulting in no fare being collected for that trip. Following the launch of a proof-of-payment system on a bus rapid transit line, we designed a study to measure the effectiveness of the strategies utilized by onboard fare inspection team to ticket nonpaying riders, and provided recommendations on how the fare inspection teams could modify their work schedules and inspection locations to improve both capture rate and rider perception. We also set up a routine process that allowed the bus company to produce a weekly report of rolling average rates of systemwide fare evasion for monitoring by operations management.
Measuring Daily Bus Passenger Miles Using Electronic Farebox Data
In one of the first production application for extensive analysis of “big” data in a U.S. transit agency, we designed and implemented a user-friendly computer program that automatically detected and corrected inevitable data errors in the daily Automated Fare Collection (AFC) system transaction log files, and devised an algorithm to compute actual aggregate mileage travelled by each individual bus passenger on a zero manual intervention and daily reporting basis. This method was approved by the Federal Transit Administration (FTA) as a 100% sample for bus passenger-miles for National Transit Database reporting and Federal Capital funding purposes, replacing previous labour-intensive random sample practices with higher error margins. At the time, the AFC transaction logs were not broken down by trip, no electronic bus driver sign-on data was available, and no geo-location information was available from the buses. This resulted in various heuristics being necessary to derive the required results. Since that time, the agency has progressively moved towards equipping all buses with automated passenger counters and automated vehicle location systems. However, until 100% of the fleet is fitted with entrance-exit door sensors, this farecard-based method of measuring passenger ridership and passenger-miles remains in daily production use.
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Demographic Analyses to Inform Transit Fare Policy
One major U.S. transit agency was proposing a significant round of fare restructuring in the face of a structural deficit, and many fare policy options were being considered. Some of these proposed fare structures involved significant increases and expected diversions of current customers between different fare products (e.g pay-per-ride tickets, discounted multi-ride tickets, and unlimited ride passes of differing durations), and an option to introduce higher peak fares was being discussed. This type of major change in fare structure was unusual in this metropolitan area and advocates were concerned about its equity impacts, as the proposals had the potential to shift the cost burden between different groups or geographic areas. We were tasked to combine existing fare media usage survey data, customer demographics data, U.S. Census data, and current farecard utilization data to determine impacts to different groups of customers, such as minority or low-income. For this assignment, we came up with two different approaches for impact analyses: a classical aggregate one based on known fare elasticities in the various markets, and an innovative disaggregate one utilizing all observed trips and individually simulating each rider’s choice of fare product based on the new fare structure and their daily travel pattern. From these results, the transit agency was able to choose a fare scenario that delivered the required revenue increases whilst minimizing impacts to protected demographics. These results were also provided to relevant authorities for establishing Title VI compliance of the fare restructuring process.
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Transport Equity Analyses for Major Service Changes
On behalf of a major U.S. public transit agency, we developed analytical methodologies and performed demographic analysis to determine the impact of proposed service changes on protected customer groups (minority and low-income). At that time, a large package of bus service changes was being considered, including changes in service span, route, frequency—which also resulted in specific impacts in load factors, access distance, and other performance metrics that are monitored under the agency’s own service standard and various regulatory requirements. Changes were also proposed for several rail lines. For each proposed service change action, we determined whether it met the “major service change” threshold. If it did, we determined through demographic analysis of likely users as to whether the change impacted the protected groups disproportionately. From these results, the agency was able to modify proposed service changes to avoid impacting protected groups while achieving the required cost reductions. These results were also provided to relevant authorities for establishing Title VI compliance of the service change process.
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Transit Plan for Major Property Redevelopment
On behalf of a major institutional developer, we worked with a team of consultants to develop a custom trip generation and modal split model to predict the traffic and transit impacts of building out a 9.5 million square feet development over the next 30-50 years on the site of an existing freight rail yard and nearby underutilized sites. The developer’s stated goal was to minimize the automobile traffic impacts by diverting as much of the trips to transit as possible, and to convert some of these commuting trips to internal trips by building housing on-site and providing transit subsidies in lieu of parking spaces. We developed a number of scenarios based on the existing masterplan, developer’s inputs, and various assumptions about economic growth and the timing and programming of major construction projects. For some scenarios, we developed a detailed public transit plan, including projections on where within the metro area the development is likely to attract commuter and non-commuter trips, how these trips are best served by both existing public transit options and future transit investments that may progress independently of this development. Additionally, we developed proposals for re-routing of existing public bus routes and entirely new private bus shuttles that would serve this development, which would connect this area to the rest of the city.
Note: Alex Lu performed this work as an employee of another firm.